Forex Statistics and live trading results of Best Forex EA’s
A place for redditors to discuss quantitative trading, statistical methods, econometrics, programming, implementation, automated strategies, and bounce ideas off each other for constructive criticism. Feel free to submit papers/links of things you find interesting.
Just watched the episode of bad boy billionaire ls on Nirav Modi. Wanted to share how I was feeling about one aspect of it.
So in the episode there's a bank clerk for Punjab national bank named Manoj Kharat. I was almost in tears listening to the guy speak. The way he expressed happiness of getting his first job really hit me as recently I just got my first job. How he said jail wasn't meant for him. Oh god poor guy. He's absolutely right. Prison is prison because it's not meant for regular folk like you and I, it's meant for scum, the worst of the worst. I can't even imagine what he must have gone through. When he says that you gotta look at the environment he was in, how his boss would give him some papers and ask him to stamp them, how he really had no way of knowing something was wrong. Can you disagree with him? Who is gonna just stand up and say no to their boss. It's not easy. Especially when you first start working. He even said he comes from a common family and hence he had no way of getting support. It really highlighted a lot of problems. How you can't really get justice if you have no influence. How even if you try to be good, things can be horribly wrong. Sure, you could say we don't know if he's really innocent. But it seemed like they want to pin it on him and be done with it. Sorry I just had to vent somewhere and I was feeling really bad for this guy.
The importance of backtesting and sticking to a strategy
Hi all, I just wanted to share my trading experience with you so far, and maybe help some people who may be in the situation as I am. I started trading about 2-3 months ago. I started with baby pips, opened a demo account, and got cocky a couple weeks into it and made a live account with $100, and every other week or so put $20 extra in. (thank God I didn’t put it more than that). Today, my account stands at around $68, with a total P/L of -$131.76. I have been really uncomfortable losing money, even if it’s not a lot, and that uncomfortableness forced me to realize my mistake. I thought I could half ass a strategy and be a winner in forex, and the market humbled me extremely quickly. I actually didn’t have a strategy at all. It was a lazy mix of a bunch of different typical strategies I saw on YouTube. I also let my emotions get into trades, after a losing trade I would get back in the market in the opposite direction to try and make up for my loss. All bad, I know. I was too cocky. Just like anything difficult in life, you cannot half ass forex. I spent all of Friday testing an EXTREMELY simple strategy on 4 major pairs, and out of 93 total trades over the last 6 months, the win rate of my strategy is 73%. From now on, I vow to ONLY make a trade when my strategy presents itself. Moral of the story is, if you think you can half ass forex, you better wake up right now. Find a strategy, backtest it, and only trade said strategy. Have some discipline. Here is my extremely simple, backtested strategy with a 73% win rate that I got from The Trading Channel on YouTube: Indicators: 200 EMA Requirements: 2 wicks IN A ROW that TOUCH the 200 EMA, that have candle bodies that both close above or below the 200 EMA. If both candles close above the 200 EMA, go long. If both candles close below the 200 EMA go short. Stay extremely strict with the rules of the strategy. Here are the pairs that I have tested this strategy on over the past 6 months, that total a 73% win rate: -GBP/USD: 18/27 winning trades (67%) -NZD/USD: 15/27 winning trades (71%) -EUUSD: 15/20 winning trades (75%) -EUGBP: 20/25 winning trades (80%) All backtesting was done on the H1 chart. I tried on the daily and H4 charts but the frequency just wasn’t enough. In the video that I got this strategy from he was trying to highlight the importance of the frequency of your strategy. Even if it may have a really high winning percentage, if it only happens once a year it’s not a good strategy. Also on a side note, I’ve seen a lot of conflicting opinions on whether or not the US election will effect USD pairs, do you guys think the election will mess with my strategy this upcoming week, or should I just trade my strategy and pay not attention to the results of the election? Thanks for reading, and happy trading Sincerely, u/emopatriot
Hi guys, I have been using reddit for years in my personal life (not trading!) and wanted to give something back in an area where i am an expert. I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf. This is very different to being a full-time home trader, although that is not to discredit those guys, who can accumulate a good amount of experience/wisdom through self learning. When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be 15-20 topics in total so about 50-60 posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions. The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts Part I
Why it matters
Using stops sensibly
Picking a clear level
Why it matters
The first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money. Look at any serious hedge fund’s website and they’ll talk about their first priority being “preservation of investor capital.” You have to keep it before you grow it. Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around. The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices. Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners.
Capital and position sizing
The first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. Let’s say you have $100,000 deposited. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose. Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market. A rule of thumb is that one should risk no more than 2% of one’s account balance on an individual trade and no more than 8% of one’s account balance on a specific theme. We’ll look at why that’s a rule of thumb later. For now let’s just accept those numbers and look at examples. So we have $100,000 in our account. And we wish to buy EURUSD. We should therefore not be risking more than 2% which $2,000. We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. We’ll come back to this in a bit. So what should our position size be? We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator". https://preview.redd.it/y38zb666e5h51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26e4fe569dc5c1f43ce4c746230c49b138691d14 So the appropriate size is a buy position of 363,636 EURUSD. If it reaches our stop level we know we’ll lose precisely $2,000 or 2% of our capital. You should be using this calculator (or something similar) on every single trade so that you know your risk. Now imagine that we have similar bets on EURJPY and EURGBP, which have also broken above moving averages. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later. The total amount of risk in our portfolio - if all of the trades on this EUR-momentum theme were to hit their stops - should not exceed $8,000 or 8% of total capital. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work. As we’ll see later, many traders only win on 40-60% of trades. So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you. Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints. For example before you put on each trade you might rate the strength of your conviction in the trade and allocate a position size accordingly: https://preview.redd.it/q2ea6rgae5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=4332cb8d0bbbc3d8db972c1f28e8189105393e5b To keep yourself disciplined you should try to ensure that no more than one in twenty trades are graded exceptional and allocated 5% of account balance risk. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you. Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales. Say you start out with $100,000 but end the year up 50% at $150,000. Now a 1% bet will risk $1,500 rather than $1,000. That makes sense as your capital has grown. It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only 4-5 losing trades because they are leveraged at 50:1 and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance. Consider that GBPUSD tends to move 1% each day. If you have an account balance of $10k then it would be crazy to take a position of $500k (50:1 leveraged). A 1% move on $500k is $5k. Two perfectly regular down days in a row — or a single day’s move of 2% — and you will receive a margin call from the broker, have the account closed out, and have lost all your money. Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself.
If you’re wondering - why “about 2%” per trade? - that’s a fair question. Why not 0.5% or 10% or any other number? The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round. This is harder than it sounds. Let’s say you could bet on a weighted coin flip, where it lands on heads 60% of the time and tails 40% of the time. The payout is $2 per $1 bet. Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. But if you have, say, $100 it is less obvious how much you should bet to avoid ruin. Say you bet $50, the odds that it could land on tails twice in a row are 16%. You could easily be out after the first two flips. Equally, betting $1 is not going to maximise your advantage. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds. Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this: Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio If you have recorded hundreds of trades in your journal - see next chapter - you can calculate what this outputs for you specifically. If you don't have hundreds of trades then let’s assume some realistic defaults of Winning trade % being 30% and Risk-reward ratio being 3. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.g. 300 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss. So that’s 0.3 - (1 - 0.3) / 3 = 6.6%. Hold on a second. 6.6% of your account probably feels like a LOT to risk per trade.This is the main observation people have on Kelly: whilst it may optimise the long-run results it doesn’t take into account the pain of drawdowns. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. You needn’t go right up to the limit! With a 30% winning trade ratio, the odds of you losing on four trades in a row is nearly one in four. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not. Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. For example, let’s say you know you would feel emotionally affected by losing 25% of your account. Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four. You have effectively hidden 75% of your account balance from Kelly and it is now optimised to avoid a total wipeout of just the 25% it can see. This gives 6.6% / 4 = 1.65%. Of course different trading approaches and different risk appetites will provide different optimal bet sizes but as a rule of thumb something between 1-2% is appropriate for the style and risk appetite of most retail traders. Incidentally be very wary of systems or traders who claim high winning trade % like 80%. Invariably these don’t pass a basic sense-check:
How many live trades have you done? Often they’ll have done only a handful of real trades and the rest are simulated backtests, which are overfitted. The model will soon die.
What is your risk-reward ratio on each trade? If you have a take profit $3 away and a stop loss $100 away, of course most trades will be winners. You will not be making money, however! In general most traders should trade smaller position sizes and less frequently than they do. If you are going to bias one way or the other, far better to start off too small.
How to use stop losses sensibly
Stop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management. No serious discretionary trader can operate without them. A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter. The valid concern with stop losses is that disreputable brokers look for a concentration of stops and then, when the market is close, whipsaw the price through the stop levels so that the clients ‘stop out’ and sell to the broker at a low rate before the market naturally comes back higher. This is referred to as ‘stop hunting’. This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK. Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty. You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. This is a well known behavioural bias that we’ll explore in a later chapter. Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders. A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not. Bruce Kovner, founder of the hedge fund Caxton Associates There is an old saying amongst bank traders which is “losers average losers”. It is tempting, having bought EURUSD and seeing it go lower, to buy more. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Wrong. Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. A level where you know the reason for the trade was proved ‘wrong’ ... and stick to it strictly. If you trade using discretion, use stops.
Picking a clear level
Where you leave your stop loss is key. Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. For example if EURUSD is trading at 1.1250 and the recent month’s low is 1.1205 then leaving it just below at 1.1200 seems sensible. If you were going long, just below the double bottom support zone seems like a sensible area to leave a stop You want to give it a bit of breathing room as we know support zones often get challenged before the price rallies. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. You won’t be the only one selling around 1.1200. The “weak hands” who leave their sell stop order at exactly the level are likely to get taken out as the market tests the support. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up. Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Here’s a candlestick chart (one candle is one day) for GBPUSD. https://preview.redd.it/moyngdy4f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=91af88da00dd3a09e202880d8029b0ddf04fb802 If you are putting on a trend-following trade you expect to hold for weeks then you need to have a stop loss that can withstand the daily noise. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend. So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level. There are several tools you can use to help you estimate what is a safe distance and we’ll look at those in the next section. There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high. https://preview.redd.it/ygy0tko7f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=34af49da61c911befdc0db26af66f6c313556c81 Clearly then where you set stops will depend on your trading style as well as your holding horizons and the volatility of each instrument. Here are some guidelines that can help:
Use technical analysis to pick important levels (support, resistance, previous high/lows, moving averages etc.) as these provide clear exit and entry points on a trade.
Ensure that the stop gives your trade enough room to breathe and reflects your timeframe and typical volatility of each pair. See next section.
Always pick your stop level first. Then use a calculator to determine the appropriate lot size for the position, based on the % of your account balance you wish to risk on the trade.
So far we have talked about price-based stops. There is another sort which is more of a fundamental stop, used alongside - not instead of - price stops. If either breaks you’re out. For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position. You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market.
Coming up in part II
EDIT: part II here Letting stops breathe When to change a stop Entering and exiting winning positions Risk:reward ratios Risk-adjusted returns
Coming up in part III
Squeezes and other risks Market positioning Bet correlation Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits *** Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
Releasing a Decade of Forex Tick Data I Crawled and Converted
In my exploration of the world of big data and I became curious about tick data. Unfortunately, market data is almost always behind a paywall or de-sampled to the point of uselessness. After discovering the Dukascopy API, I knew I wanted to make this data available for all in a more accessible format. Over the course of a few months, I downloaded, cleaned, parsed, and compressed over a decade of Forex tick data on 37 currency pairs and commodities. Today I am happy to finally release the final result of my work to the DataHoarder community!
The data was collected from https://www.dukascopy.com/ via a public API that allows for the download of tick data on the hour level. These files come in the form of a .bi5 file. The data starts as early as 2004 all the way to 2019. These files were decompressed, then merged into yearly CSV’s named in the following convention. “AUDCHF_tick_UTC+0_00_2011.csv” or ‘Pair_Resolution_Timezone_Year.csv’ These CSV’s are split into 3 categories “Majors”, “Crosses”, “Commodities”. Majors, Crosses, and Commodities have had their timestamps modified so that they are in the official UTC ISO standard. This was originally done for a Postgresql database that quickly became obsolesced. Any files that have been modified are appended with a “-Parse”. These timestamps have been modified in the following format. Millisecond timestamps to UTC +00:00 time [2017.01.01 22:37:08.014] -- [2017-01-01T22:37:08.014+00:00] https://preview.redd.it/x6g277skfiu51.png?width=1399&format=png&auto=webp&s=35cd6735c1826424580919ac3377612377a3107c
For those looking to use this data in a live context or update it frequently, I have included a number of tools for both Windows and Linux that will be useful.
The ~/dukascopy/resources/windows folder contains a third party tool written in java that can download and convert Dukascopy’s .bi5 files. I have also included the latest zstd binaries from Zstandard Github page.
Linux is my daily driver in 99% of cases, so I have developed all my scraping tools using Linux only tools. In the ~/dukascopy/resources/linux folder you will find a number of shell script and pyhton3 files that I used to collect this data. There are quite a few files in this directory but I will cover the core ones below.
This file is used to download a single symbol for a single day and then convert and merge all 24 .bi5 files into a single CSV.
This file is used to download a single symbol for a full year and then convert and merge all .bi5 files into a single CSV.
This file contains all the core logic for downloading and converting data from dukascopy.
This tad slow but works well enough. It requires the pandas project and parses timestamps into the UTC ISO standard. This is useful for those looking to maintain the format of new files with the those in this repo, or those looking to use this in a SQL database.
I'll leave these as they are for a little while (About 12 hours from now). If you check the trade history of these accounts vrs my posting history you'll see none of the losses made were from trades I posted. Actually sometimes I inverted the trades I posted to generate losses. You can see this in the "History" tab and of course you know how to see my Reddit posts. Heading into Monday I will attach new accounts to this and we can then run phase two of the test. I could just upload accounts already running and proftable to this, but I think it's best to do everything in real time and in the open. From now on I will be trading the same positions as I post and tracking the results of these. You can find these results at the links above as of Monday.
Now I'll trade and track results properly and we get to do a proper experiement into the real motives and nature of everyone involved. I've said it for months, the truth of people will be revealed by their own actions. Just a case of waiting untl the time is right. From now on I'll only trade the things I post in my subs/forum. No messing about. If they bomb this time, I suck. If not, let's see what happens :)
Hello, I‘m on this algotrading journey starting with crypto for exactly one year now. My strategies have not been profitable yet. I have programmed my bot, teached it all the technical indicators I got to know myself first, have left it live trading and losing half of its assigned budget. I‘ve read alot about backtesting on this forum and started learning this wierd pine script language on Tradingview. I got good looking backtest results based on some simple RSI/MACD scripts. The bot got some fresh budget assigned to lose some of it again. Leaving it running for three months the blue backtest profit hill is slowly turning red as well in the meantime. Overfitted to the max obviously. I tried implementing my own backtester to add some machine learning to even more overfit the overfitted values. I somehow left it in the dark for now and have never used it for live trading yet reading so much about overfitted backtesting within this sub. Since two months I have now completely stopped using backtesting due to this disappointing experience and completely went towards paper trading (using virtual budget on my bot). I have also tried to minimize usage of technical indicators because of the lagging. I consider all the coins instead of only BTC now. The price action is clearly linked to BTC tho (very visible!). Managing my (virtual) budget and allocation towards trades is a big learning for me as well. I slightly look into backtesting again to validate my strategies. Still not profitable but won‘t give up there. I feel heavy doubts sometimes using it but it gives back hope as well. How do you balance your efforts from backtesting compared to live/paper trading? With my full time job I have somehow developed a ritual when coming home the first thing in wifi range is checking the paper trades that my bot has done over the day. Most often re-writing the whole strategy due to bad performance. I need to get more patient on that. Next I want to read more about Forex. Ordered my first book about it yesterday. Just wanted to share my story. Hope it can motivate or helps in some way.
As PTI comes onto two years, I felt like making this post on account of seeing multiple people supporting PML-N for having an allegedly better economy for Pakistan, particularly with allegations present that PTI has done nothing for the economy. So here's a short list of some major achievements done by PTI in contrast to PML-N.
Stopping Pakistan from defaulting: The move to devalue the rupee was one done despite knowing the backlash that would be faced. Under Nawaz Sharif the rupee was artificially overvalued through loans and forex reserves, this meant Pakistan had no sustainable way for repaying those massive loans. Imran Khan on the other hand had to approach the IMF due to these overlaying maturing debts, lack of growth in exports under PMLN, decline in Foreign Direct Investment and an ever higher import bill. This was done at the cost of letting the rupee massively devalue against the dollar, however paved the path for economic stability as noted by the IMF.
Renewed focus on taxation: Easily the most controversial facet of the economic policy by PTI, but one that has shown merit and results. Overall, there has been a 40% increase in returns filers and a 17% revenue increase. This coupled with a massive austerity scheme, meant that the government has started an incline towards increasing it's revenues. While this hasn't been met with open arms, it presents a solution to the everpresent crisis that the Pakistan government has faced, in it's inability to increase it's revenues. Not only that, but the general taxation system was streamlined, making it easier for individuals to file taxes. Introductions of new apps and consolidating activities for the FBR were among the efforts as well. Moreover, businesses that were entitled to tax refunds are finally being granted them, under PMLN they were held onto so as to inflate collection numbers, however under PTI that has changed and it's not inflated. It is worth noting, that because of the covid-19 pandemic, the effect of the austerity schemes and feasibility have seriously dampened, and it's created a bigger problem for increasing revenue collection.
It is worth noting, that some may criticise the overall decrease in the account deficit to be a result of the decrease in imports, and the increase in worker remittances, however this was indeed a result of the overall economic impact from the covid-19 pandemic. And that general trends support the notion of exports increasing and the account deficit decreasing in the second quarter of 2019.
Tourism: The reforms and measures taken to facilitate tourism in Pakistan were evidently among the most successful — Pakistan went from being sidelined to being amongst the worlds top destinations to visit. There were multiple reasons for this, the removal of the mandatory NOC, the initiative for online visas for upto 175 countries alongside visa-on-arrival for 50 countries were among the facilitating measures taken for tourism.
Foreign Direct Investment: What can be appreciated is the general reception of Pakistan's economic outlook, where FDI climbed by upto 137% within this fiscal year, gathering upto nearly $2.1 billion. Yet, once again — the pandemic will undoubtedly cause most countries to rethink their economic policies for now, and the overall FDI might see a downward trend with regards to global decrease in FDI. Despite, the increases in FDI are welcomed, especially considering total foreign investment rose 380 percent to $2.375 billion in July-March FY2020. Yet the sustainability of this remains to be seen.
Dealing with covid: Despite all odds, Pakistan has somehow managed to deal well with the pandemic. Coming out relatively alright, in perspective of countries such as India, Mexico, Italy, Brazil etc. The factor that plays out, is that despite being incredibly vulnerable, the country managed to pull through and has markedly reduced the impact of the virus. With regards to the economy, taking a bold risk of abating a complete lockdown, whilst met with criticism was once again a factor that showed competency. Keeping in mind that 51 million Pakistanis lived below the poverty line, and the adverse effect it would have on the economy. Pakistan managed to come through the economic contraction with only a -0.38% growth. Although the full effects are still not abated or understood, what's commendable is the fact that Pakistan under PTI has kept itself from an even worse situation. Whilst managing to keep covid under relative control. Especially given increases in exports despite the pandemic in countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Italy.
This is by no means a highly comprehensive list, just my opinion on some of the bigger achievements; saving the economy from defaulting, adopting tax reforms, tourism reforms, export reforms among them whilst managing covid and economic stability with relative success. There are of course a multitude of other factors, successfully avoiding a blacklist from the FATF, macroeconomic reforms, attempts to strengthen the working class; ehsaas programs, Naya Pakistan housing schemes alongside other relief efforts. These are measures in accordance with curtailing the effect of increasing taxation and attempts to abate the economic slowdown that came as a result of forcing an increase in government revenue. Alongside the focus on multiple new hydroelectric dams, industrial cities, reduction of the PM office staff from 552 to 298, 10 billion tree project and an overall renewed interest in renewable energy and green Pakistan. The list is comprehensive. Pakistan remains on a rocky path, it is not out of the woods yet. Covid-19 has seriously hampered the overall projections, and caused a worldwide economic contraction. Not only that, but there are criticisms that can be attributed to the government as well, as they are not without fault. However, the overall achievements of the government with regards to the economy do present hope for the long-term fiscal policy and development of Pakistan.
Create my own startups from my ideas or present them to managers in my company and cooperate with employeer?
Hello everyone and sorry for my english first, I am from eastern Europe. Have a life-changing dilemma, which I can't solve solely. I have two great (as I think) startup ideas. One is related to enterntainment - I've made a very funny electric device, using microcontrollers with some electric stuff (it is not fully ready and just a proof-of-concept). I think I can sell it to people thru Amazon or something like that. Friends, that saw this unironically said, that it is 'better than orgasm', lol. The second one is financial startup idea (stocks and forex related, I've been tried trading, read numerous number of books - no luck, but I've got great software-as-a-service idea) and I didn't find existing implementation of this idea, so as I suppose I've created a really unique thing. I already programmed a website and all backend\frontend code for it and ready to make it 'live' and sell subscriptions. Both of ideas took about a year for me to do everything. I've been working on my weekends and nights after my job. Yeah, don't have a lot of personal life I am also working as a software developer in a big tech company (about 5k people around the globe) with a pretty good salary for my country. My company is very nice and focused more on people working in it, rather than on business. For example if you are sick you can just take a day off and 'compensate' it on any other days\weekends, you can come to office at 13:00 and nobody would say the word to you, so I really like my job. So I have two options there
Try to complete these ideas alone. Do all QA testing, marketing, for idea #1 - assembling 'parts' of this 'toy', shipping it to amazon, advertising, for idea #2 - advertising, payments, registration of business in my country, A LOT of qa testing (since it is financial startup with monthly-subscriptions, so it should be 100% working). As you understand result of all of it - my own company\startup and POSSIBLY hundreds\millions $ of profit. On the other hand - I can fail very hard, spend more time and money and my ideas will not be popular, since I am not a pro SEO, promoter, don't have a lot of money to promote my stuff, etc, but ANYWAY - it is portfolio, I will be not just an obvious 'employee', at least I'll try to create my own business + I can continue working in my company and get my salary for living.
Try to 'cooperate' with my employeer. Make a presentation to managers and give everything to my company for 'outsource'. So my company possibly can develop it using all it's human resources (salespeople, promoters, managers, developers) and money and give me % from sales\subscriptions, they can promote all products better and I can (possibly) get a lot of $ too. But there are two problems - business is a business. My company may steal my ideas (which is unlikely, but possible), my company may deny my ideas, but managers will just say, that "you cannot make your ideas live on your own, because we have NDA, your code that you've written during your employment is company's code", etc. So I can find myself in a dangerous position.
If I'll try to do #1 and in case of failure #2 and let my company know, that I tried to create my own IT business - they will possibly fire me too because of contract (you have to agree everything with managers before doing any side-development activities not related to the job), so I can do only #1 or #2 and there won't be way back. Sorry for my english once again, guys. I am thinking about everything for a week already, could someone give me an good advice?
Hi, I am buy and hold investor and I own 100+ stocks. I started short term trading few years ago, mainly for educational purposes, either swing trades with stocks in my portfolio or speculations with stocks and ETFs. Just basic technical and fundamental analysis, StockTwits, most of the time guessing and pure luck :-) I won't bet my living on this income. I know a guy who has been trading options for several years and his average annual return is ~18%. He works 2 hours every workday on trading. He claims that using his strategy risk is very low and the 18% is a good result for his low-risk low-volatility strategy. On the other hand I know a guy who has been trading on Forex using lot of algorithmic trading SW for his trades and last year he gave up on this and he said that this is barely profitable comparing to like 2010 when he started to doing it. So I am curious what is the real expectation (from long term view) of annual return if I decide to start trading for living every day for two hours. (Considering I will educate my self and get better, I am not expecting this from the day one, even from the year one probably) I started to consider this (Options trading) after I talked with the guy because using my current cash capital gaining 18% annual return working two hours a day? Much better hourly rate then my current job, much more free time and still decent living.
This thread is the direct continuation of my previous entry, which you can find here. I have the feeling my rambles may be long, so I'm not going to repeat anything I already said in my previous post for the sake of keeping this brief. What is this? I am backtesting the strategy shared by ParallaxFx. I have just completed my second run of testing, and I am here to share my results with those who are interested. If you want to read more about the strategy, go to my previous thread where I linked it. What changed? Instead of using a fixed target of the -100.0 Fibonacci extension, I tracked both the -61.8 and the -100.0 targets. ParallaxFx used the -61.8 as a target, but never tried the second one, so I wanted to compare the two and see what happens. Where can I see your backtested result? I am going to do something I hope I won't regret and share the link to my spreadsheet. Hopefully I won't be doxxed, but I think I should be fine. You can find my spreadsheet at this link. There are a lot of entries, so it may take a while for them to load. In the "Trades" tab, you will find every trade I backtested with an attached screenshot and the results it would have had with the extended and the unextended target. You can see the UNCOMPOUNDED equity curve in the Summary tab, together with the overall statistics for the system. What was the sample size? I backtested on the Daily chart, from January 2017 to December 2019, over 28 currency pairs. I took a total of 310 trades - although keep in mind that every position is most often composed by two entries, meaning that you can roughly halve this number. What is the bottom line? If you're not interested in the details, here are the stats of the strategy based on how I traded it.
Extended: 223.46 R of return, 2.34 of profit factor, 0.72 R of expected value, 46.13% winrate. The average win is 2.72 R while the average loss is -1.00 R.
Unextended: 172.20 R of return, 2.19 of profit factor, 0.56 R of expected value, 53.23% winrate. The average win is 1.92 R while the average loss is -1.00 R.
The highest drawdown for both systems was 18 R. This seems like a lot, but remember you're splitting risk in half.
Here you can see the two uncompounded equity curves side by side: red is unextended and blue is extended. Who wins? The test suggests the strategy to be more profitable with the extended target. In addition, most of the trades that reached the unextended target but reversed before reaching the extended, were trades that I would have most likely not have taken with the extented target. This is because there was a resistance/support area in the way of the -100.0 extension level, but there was enough room for price to reach the -61.8 level. I will probably trade this strategy using the -100.0 level as target, unless there is an area in the way. In that case I will go for the unextended target. Drawdown management The expected losing streak for this system, using the extended target, is 7 trades in a row in a sample size of 100 trades. My goal is to have a drawdown cap of 4%, so my risk per trade will be 0.54%. If I ever find myself in a losing streak of more than 8 trades, I will reduce my risk per trade further. What's next? I'll be taking this strategy live. The wisest move would be to repeat the same testing over lower timeframes to verify the edge plays out there as well, but I would not be able to trust my results because I would have vague memories of where price went because of the testing I just did. I also believe markets are fractals, so I see no reason why this wouldn't work on lower timeframes. Before going live, I will expand this spreadsheet to include more specific analysis and I will continue backtesting at a slower pace. The goal is to reach 20 years of backtesting over these 28 pairs and put everything into this spreadsheet. It's not something I will do overnight, but I'll probably do one year every odd day, and maybe a couple more during the weekend. I think I don't have much else to add. I like the strategy. Feel free to ask questions.
Hello, So I'm using tradingview to view the S&P 500 MICRO, it's delayed by 10 minutes currently. Is this data the same as real time data, just delayed by 10 min? Like if compared to real time it's identical what happens in real time and delayed, delayed just is 10 minutes behind? I can't find a real time futures chart for free anywhere. So I'm using tradingview for paper trading my day trading strategy. Wanted to make sure the results would be the same, that the delayed data isn't completely different from a real time chart Like how forex demos are usually different than live account data. Thank you!
Wiseling investment starting at 0.8 daily profit, invest with BTC, ETH or USD
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Forex Fund Management Live Results -Cabana Capitals - YouTube
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